Three Minds On Digital Marketing @ Organic

Tapping into the herd through social media has been a goal for investors for some time.  Collective Intellect (founded in 2005 for this sole purpose) and Dow Jones Insights are listening platforms that specialize in this area.  Late last year Stocktwits became the first Twitter based service based on investment discussion and has been driving change in the way that many day traders discuss and evaluate stocks.   But if there was any question about social media having a measurable impact on trading, that has been quashed with the latest announcement that StreamBase Systems is integrating Twitter with its Complex Event Processing (CEP) platform for money managers and traders.

"Users of StreamBase's Twitter adapter can combine Twitter with market data and build data management applications, says StreamBase CTO Richard Tibbetts. In particular, Twitter can be used as a crowd sourcing tool to help gauge people's sentiment towards a particular event or stock. "It's really useful for sentiment analysis, which traders can then use to help them make trading decisions," he adds. Nasir Zubairi, former product manager for algorithmic trading and FX E-commerce, RBS, points out that as Twitter continues to gain sweeping adoption across the globe, it will increasingly become a key medium to convey information to the financial world too."

Now the question becomes: What impact will this have on stock values? 

Will more information make the markets more efficient? The lightening speed of information transfer on Twitter will allow traders to price in news more quickly.  Case in point, both Michael Jackson's passing and civil unrest in Iran were all over Twitter before there was any news coverage that would appear in a trader's feed from Bloomberg or Reuters. 

Or will misinformation and group think lead to more volatility?  If traders act on the earliest rumors the impact on market value of stocks becomes self reinforcing and may amplify the natural tendency of the market to bubble and bust.

Regardless of the answer, it is guaranteed that day traders not plugged into social media will be at a disadvantage.

Thanks to Fang-Lu Lin for the link.

Russ Hopkinson

Caterina Fake, who previously cofounded the photo-sharing site Flickr has cofounded a new search engine named Hunch, which launched Monday 6/15/09.

What differentiates Hunch from other search engines is that rather than focusing on delivering an answer to specific questions (Where can I get Chinese takeout, 10018) Hunch seeks to deliver recommendations to less defined questions (What should I make for dinner tonight?).

Hunch starts off by asking you a few multiple choice questions to develop your profile. You can create an account and save your profile, or the Hunch site can keep track of your answers via cookies (of course you'll need to answer the questions again if you use another computer). If you create an account, you have the opportunity to "Teach Hunch About You" by answering even more questions. This information is used to help Hunch make recommendations that are relevant to you and your preferences. Once Hunch makes its recommendations, you can let the engine know if the recommendations were good or not. This data is also saved and used to adjust future recommendations. Hunch uses all this information to group people based on their answers. The next time you ask a question. It will try to give you recommendations based on the group's answers.

Besides the profile questions, when you start your search you have to answer a series of survey question on the topic you are searching. "Do you like spicy food?", "Are you a vegetarian?", etc. These are used to determine your final recommendations. Hunch recommended I make Jambalaya, which I thought was a great recommendation (even though I decided I didn't want to cook at all last night).

While the site offers an interesting approach to search, it will take many users who will have to literally answer hundreds of questions, for the engine's algorithms to be robust enough to actually offer relevant answers - I stopped just after answering my 200th question, and there was no indication of how many more questions there were. Though it might be cool to get recommendations based on what other people - with similar profiles - have answered... is it worth the hours you'll spend creating a profile when you can chat with a friend?

Hunch has also declared it won't share this data, but if the site takes off, it would be interesting to see what other uses this data might be applicable to. Information like this could make targeted ads VERY targeted...

Madi Benjamin

Our little Norwegian-based company, Opera, is at it again with a bold claim that it will "reinvent the web" with its new Opera Unite service.
 
Some of the features available to Mac, PC, or Linux/Unix users:

• File sharing -- securely share files direct from your computer
• Web server -- turns your home computer into a web server via Opera Unite URL
• Media player -- direct link to your music collection from any web browser
• Photo sharing -- shares your image library over the web without requiring a photo service
• Lounge -- self-contained chat service running on your computer
• Fridge -- a place where friends and family can post notes

All sounds good on paper. But we have some skeptics here:

"These Swiss army knife apps that attempt to do everything for everyone tend to fall short in the end. The convenience of having all that functionality in one place often comes at the expense of the robust functionality we expect from dedicated apps.

Take the photo-sharing feature. Sounds nice, but are you really going to use go for that over Flickr or Picasa? Especially if it means fragmenting your library? Will the media player have the codec support I have in my dedicated media player?

Looks nice on paper, but I'm not buying shares just yet."
- Dan Neumann
 
"I'm wondering how this would compare to Google Wave. Google Wave is claiming to 'reinvent email', but it sounds like they are trying to do a lot of the same stuff by making it more collaborative, real-time, and enable sharing."
- Marta Strickland
 
"Opera's promo video and new list of features are uninspired, in my opinion. One could replace Opera with Facebook, Twitter, Google, Xbox, and probably countless other platforms, and no one would notice the difference. This is a failure in branding and product strategy.
 
As for this vs. Google Wave, the Wave team has truly examined the experience from the user's perspective, and uniquely rebuilt communication online, while Opera Unite seems to be just adding on functionality that certainly isn't revolutionary. That is, the elements of Wave aren't new, but most people don't use things like Wikis and Twitter... Wave is positioned to take over because of its simplicity and intuitive structure.
 
And btw... 'Fridge?' Dumb."
-Craig Ritchie

 
These are all valid points and they've left us wondering three questions:
1.  Will people really make the leap from their "trusted" current browser?
2.  How long before other browsers copy these services?
3.  And last but not least, the privacy issue. Will people be fearful of sharing their stuff?
 
Opera has been around for over a decade and had features like tabbed browsing and a search bar at the top of the browser before Firefox did and is looked to as an innovator on the web browser front by companies like Mozilla. So the thought about other browsers copying Opera's services is absolutely correct.
 
Opera claims their mobile and computer-based browsers are very secure - even safer with user data than Firefox and any product they develop tends to include the same encryption and security. Even if people trust that, it may not get past the legal barriers. The file sharing aspects of this product may be frowned upon by the U.S. legal system, as they will likely fall into the same category of services like Grokster and Napster. However, with a much larger following for Opera outside of the US, and being Norway-based, we don't really think they're concerned about that.
 
Do you think the new Opera will do as they promise and "reinvent the web?"
 
Tyler King
Sarah Jo Sautter

The U.S. Postal Service recently launched a very nice way to use augmented reality (AR). Their Virtual Box Simulator is unusual in that it offers real utility by allowing users to determine appropriate box size for what they want to ship. Simply print out their eagle logo. Then use your webcam.

Branded AR executions are under fire these days and agencies who use the technology are often derided for buying into a novelty that offers little value to end users. Some critics have even gone as far as to draw comparisons with Second Life.

Dan Neumann notes: Recently, I've seen a few executions that seem to defy much of this criticism. This is one of them.

Karri Ojanen wrote about a mobile application that broke through this with entertainment value. The Virtual Box Simulator is another. And it appears to bring much product and service value. How long before the other shipping companies follow?

Thanks to Dan Neumann for the link.
Sarah Jo Sautter

The Emerging Experiences team at Razorfish recently unveiled their experimental retail platform Razorfashion. The system is built around a multi-touch enabled surface display that aims at augmenting the user's shopping experience in offline stores. It is indeed an interesting exploration and contains several inspired ideas. However, this "retail experience" that Razorfish created may not actually be a consumer darling in a real retail space. Here's why:

Retail experience that isn't

Due to iPod's dominance, some competitors attempted to unseat it by introducing new killer features. One of these seemingly attractive innovations was wireless song sharing, however it never gained much traction. The problem is that it goes against people's expectation of what "sharing" embodies in physical space. When you are together with your friends, the music is shared by co-listening through the same pair of headphones or speakers. The wireless transmission of files deprives users of the intimacy or camaraderie that the act of sharing traditionally promises. Same problem here. The retail experience for most shoppers is the enjoyment of seeing/feeling/touching merchandises, comparing/matching them side by side, trying them on, and admiring oneself in the mirror. If one wishes to "shop" on a computer screen, he or she can simply stay home.

In the nascent stage of e-commerce, many had the misguided notion of replicating brick and mortar experience in the cyberspace. Some went so far as to champion 3D virtual mall built around the (then) cutting-edge VRML. Now the pendulum has swung to the other end; efforts such as Razorfashion aspire to recreate digital experience in physical space using the (now) cutting-edge touch surface. It just might be as futile. It is my opinion that our digital social lives have evolved to the point that the real world is starting to collide with the virtual one. Experience design professionals now need to take a hard look at how these two realms can compliment and enhance each other. Replication is not the answer.

Crossing the chasm and then back

In order to induce such a tectonic shift in shopper behaviors, a critical mass is needed to create strong enough network externalities. Razorfashion's clever responses are a) to create an inter-store system that facilitate a continuous experience in the same shopping center, and b) to leverage the consumer's personal social networks such as Facebook.

The former would be a vast infrastructure-building initiative. Not only the cost can be prohibitive, it also ignores the differences in branding requirements of all these diverse stores in the same mall. One design does not fit all, and some brands may flat out refuse to be associated with any modern technology. Even if we somehow manage to establish such a network, the user's personal data is portable only through his or her own mobile device. Coupling with the fact that the social network touch points Razorfashion trying to duplicate already exist on said mobile device, one has to question the wisdom of building an elaborated display network in the first place. Why not keep the experience on the mobile device from end to end?

Private touch in public space

There is no question that the characteristics of multi-touch interface such as tactility and direct manipulation lend itself well to small devices that are personal and intimate in nature. Problems however arise when the surface is scaled up. Most early applications of large-scaled touch interface were collaborative "workbench" systems. Since they were often used in semi-private settings with trusted participants, the tension between private and public modes of computing, while emerging, was still well contained. Nonetheless, the simple act of bringing up the surface from its traditional upward-facing orientation to its new full-frontal public posture stirs up that tension to new height. Exactly which parts of people's shopping experience they deemed private and which parts public need to be researched and then addressed accordingly. Razorfashion's social network mashup features further underscore the issue.

The deployment of multi-touch surfaces in public space also faces a couple of problems that are trivial but not any less real. First, due to the size of the display certain operations are difficult or imprecise to operate with just one hand, thus all the two-handed actions that you saw in the Razorfashion demo video. This would spell trouble in its intended environment, where users are likely carrying shopping bags or handbag. The second issue is one of sanitation--real or perceived. Witness how people loathe the finger smudges on their iPhone; now imagine magnifying that smeared screen and placing it in a shopping center where sees thousands of visitors...in flu seasons. It seems a contact-less gesture-controlled interface, not unlike the Xbox Project Natal, is more suitable for large public display.

Despites the aforementioned issues, projects such as this and IconNicholson's interactive mirror are important trials that surely will one day lead to better retail design and services. Integrated online/offline service design is likely to become the new focal point of the industry. It is exciting times to be an experience designer.

Fang-Yu Lin

The 2009 Apple Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) is just around the corner. Rumors of new iPhone hardware and software are running rampant. One frequently surfaced request (or more accurately, complaint) is the lack of Flash support on iPhone and iPod touch. While I can see why the general public raises that question, I am perplexed when it comes from technology pundits/bloggers and interaction design professionals. Simply put: Flash is ill suited for the touch interface.

Consider the following issues:

1. Rollover does not compute
On a touch interface, touching is clicking and dragging is scrolling. There is simply no rollover event. Unfortunately, more often than not Flash-based interfaces rely heavily on rollover to trigger control mechanism or content delivery. This problem serious undermines the practicality of Flash implementation.

This is Hulu player with rollover.


 Without rollover, you can't even pause the video.

2. No assisted text input and menu selection
To alleviate the inherent restrictions of small screen (and fat fingers), Apple introduced some UI enhancements to improve the usability of touch interface. Two obvious instances are the text field and menu "picker." Flash programs cannot invoke these assisted UI components, thus making mundane tasks such as menu selection and keyboard control difficult, if not altogether impossible.

 

You won't be able to access input assistance with Flash.

3. Non-standard UI can be non-functional
Flash designers for years have been pushing the envelope of interactivity by breaking UI conventions. Some of them are so out of the norm that they are barely usable on a computer. Now imagine running them on a small touch screen. UI anomalies as benign as scrollbars without up/down arrows will be broken, not to mention more serious offenses.

None of the Favourite Website Awards winners are likely to function flawlessly.

Exhibit A: BooneOakley's new website.



Did you click? Press play. But try clicking from the traditional URL too: booneoakley.com. See how you were seamlessly ported off to the YouTube video. It is the agency's site. One that has embedded links to the portfolio and all other points of relevant interest. And all presented in convenient YouTube format. Shareable, embeddable, and comment-able. And , as one commenter noted: "Boone Oakley - 1, The rest of you hacks - 0."

Exhibit B: Getyourbasketballon.com.



Blast Radius hires Charlie Murphy from The Chappelle Show to star in an elaborate and ingenious mythology around the man who beat out Michael Jordan for the last spot on his 10th grade basketball team: Leroy Smith. Deliberately lo-fi, the site's brilliant integration of YouTube and social media is matched by the talent on hand. Better still, it promotes Nike subsidiary, Brand Jordan, without a single Jumpman logo to be seen. And Charlie Murphy as a ludicrous basketball motivational specialist? It's like unaired Chappelle show sketches.

Now, for the rest of us? Time to get our YouTube on.

Daniel Turman

PS. Hat tip to Sacha Reeb for finding the BooneOakley site and providing the following commentary: "Smart site placement. Direct viral path. Endless seeding possibilities." Agreed. See Exhibit A.

PPS. Not all of the Leroy story is a myth. He really did beat out Jordan for the one spot for a sophomore on their team, largely because he was taller. And as an homage, Jordan used the name "Leroy Smith" as his alias when checking into hotels throughout his career.

Photo Credit: Jeroen Diepenmaat

Social music discovery and recommendation services have exploded in recent years. It's nice to see DRM schemes crumble and looking around it seems that that the rapid fragmentation and proliferation of these services is likely to continue for some time. Changes to licensing and distribution models that spanned several generations have forced people to choose how they want to discover, consume, and share music.

In thinking about all the ways I discover, consume and share music it became apparent that the services one uses are a good predictor of all sorts of personal, geographic, and social tendencies (more on this in a later post). Here's a rundown of my habits.

For music discovery I've used Shazam to tag the occasional track here and there, but I use Hype Machine more than any other service. I have a few friends who work in the music industry and post tons of music videos on Facebook. I find their posts invaluable. There are a few blogs I check regularly too. And, lots of people on my IM network use various clients that allow them to display what they're listening to throughout the day.

MySpace music seems to have become the de facto homepage for many bands - probably because it's so easy to stream full tracks from their media player - so I poke around over there once in a while. It would be tough to go back to a world without the Pandora iPhone app and living in NYC, with so many bands passing through, Sonic Living has become an indispensable resource for keeping track of upcoming shows.

Of course, there are tons of music videos on YouTube, so I'm there now and then. Both Last.fm and Imeem are tried and true veterans that get some play when everyone else is failing to quench my thirst for something new. I also scrobble iTunes and Hype Machine with Last.fm so I have everything in one place.

As far as sharing goes, I post playlists to a great site called 8tracks so I can share them over Twitter and Facebook. We stream playlists and often entire libraries on our office iTunes network and I'm into that too. So much so, that I downloaded a little utility called iTunes Monitor that lets me see who's listening to my playlists.

I know there are some big names missing from this list, so it would be great to hear what the Threeminds readership thinks of my music ecosystem and how they meet their discovery, consumption, and sharing needs.

Dan Neumann