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06/30/2009

Buy on the tweet, sell on the fact

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Tapping into the herd through social media has been a goal for investors for some time.  Collective Intellect (founded in 2005 for this sole purpose) and Dow Jones Insights are listening platforms that specialize in this area.  Late last year Stocktwits became the first Twitter based service based on investment discussion and has been driving change in the way that many day traders discuss and evaluate stocks.   But if there was any question about social media having a measurable impact on trading, that has been quashed with the latest announcement that StreamBase Systems is integrating Twitter with its Complex Event Processing (CEP) platform for money managers and traders.

"Users of StreamBase's Twitter adapter can combine Twitter with market data and build data management applications, says StreamBase CTO Richard Tibbetts. In particular, Twitter can be used as a crowd sourcing tool to help gauge people's sentiment towards a particular event or stock. "It's really useful for sentiment analysis, which traders can then use to help them make trading decisions," he adds. Nasir Zubairi, former product manager for algorithmic trading and FX E-commerce, RBS, points out that as Twitter continues to gain sweeping adoption across the globe, it will increasingly become a key medium to convey information to the financial world too."

Now the question becomes: What impact will this have on stock values? 

Will more information make the markets more efficient? The lightening speed of information transfer on Twitter will allow traders to price in news more quickly.  Case in point, both Michael Jackson's passing and civil unrest in Iran were all over Twitter before there was any news coverage that would appear in a trader's feed from Bloomberg or Reuters. 

Or will misinformation and group think lead to more volatility?  If traders act on the earliest rumors the impact on market value of stocks becomes self reinforcing and may amplify the natural tendency of the market to bubble and bust.

Regardless of the answer, it is guaranteed that day traders not plugged into social media will be at a disadvantage.

Thanks to Fang-Lu Lin for the link.

Russ Hopkinson



06/18/2009

Can Twitter Fuel A Revolution?

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Until recently, the buzz about Twitter had been almost entirely focused either on its explosive growth or on challenges to its cool cred (how many instances of "Twitter" can be found paired alongside "jumped the shark" in online posts? About 43,500 according to Google). Then, #IranElection happened.

Now, the conversation has turned from Ashton Kutcher to how social media may supplant traditional communication channels in times of crisis or dissent. While foreign news coverage is being severely curtailed and reporters are being kicked out of Iran, satellite coverage cut off, and state news is... well... being run by the state, at least a few tech-savvy citizens on the ground are finding ways to break through government-mandated blackout via Twitter and other social media services.

With its unique capability to post user reports via SMS, the Web or other applications, protesters are embracing Twitter as a tool to pass along eyewitness reports ("police are acting party on protesters side"), assist others ("Help protect the bloggers in Iran: change your settings so that your location is TEHRAN & your time zone is GMT +3.30"), and organize ("demonstration Wednesday at 4:00 pm from Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq.").

Expats and others supporting the protesters are in turn forwarding their tweets and posting their photos and videos on Facebook, Flickr, YouTube and other social media aggregators for the world to see. The Iranian government has responded by attempting to shut off access to social media properties, although many are getting through via proxies set up by others outside of Iran to access the blocked sites. Others like our very own State Department are quietly helping as well, requesting that Twitter delay scheduled maintenance earlier in the week to avoid disrupting communications in Iran.

Whether this will make the difference for Iranians hoping for democratic legitimacy or greater freedoms remains to be seen. While protesters are so far successfully transmitting their message to the world, the world may have a difficult time interpreting what it all means. The sheer number of posts (#iranelection is the top trending Twitter topic) are mostly unverifiable without an independent press. Anonymous or third party posters make it almost impossible to know who to trust. And the messages that are getting out are deeply local and personal rather than analytical or contextual in nature. All of this makes it easy for the world to get caught up in the rush of events, but makes it difficult to assess actual impact.

Can Twitter fuel a revolution?

For more analysis and information on how the post-election protests are being waged via social media, check out the Berkman Center for Internet & Society at Harvard University: http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/5446

Bridget McKinley

06/15/2009

Virgin's Big 24 Hours: Flagship Megastore Closes, iTunes Challenger Announced

1200 deck.jpgA close friend of mine used to work at the Virgin Megastore here in San Francisco. An affable fellow, he coordinated the in-store sets by the rather diverse array of musicians who used to pop up to do a few songs. Increasingly, he also managed other areas of the operation when fewer musicians started showing up. As sales of music slowed and the store grappled to reorganize around merchandising, my friend started to lament his fate within the larger context of music retailing. "I didn't get into this to sell t-shirts," he said to me once. He quit and went back to work as a trombone player in a number of local bands.

Well, today is an interesting day. And somewhere this gentleman is probably going to see this post in my Facebook feed and have an interesting moment of introspection. Because there is not one, but two fascinating pieces of news coming out of Viginland today. First, yesterday marked the closing of the flagship of Virgin's Megastore chain--the 57,000 square foot, two level outlet in New York's Union Square. But much more significantly, today Virgin announced a plan that may eventually prove to unseat Apple's iTunes and redefine the model by which the increasingly digital world of media is consumed. In fact, if you're my musician friend you might want to sit down right about now.

Unlimited MP3 downloads. From the world's largest music family of record labels in the industry: Universal Music Group. For $24.50 a month.

People familiar with the service said it would cost 10-15 pounds ($16.30-$24.50) per month, which could appeal to parents concerned by children accessing illegal sites.
The service, which both sides described as a world first, would allow Virgin Media broadband customers to both listen by streaming and download to keep as many music tracks and albums as they want from Universal's catalog.

The music will be in the MP3 format, meaning it can be played on the vast majority of music devices, including the iPod and mobile phones.

The service, which would compete with Apple's iTunes, is set to launch later this year.
Unlimited MP3 downloads. For a flat monthly fee. Say it again. All of a sudden, the entire model of consuming music is flipped on its ear. Just like that, the primary consideration is no longer the cost or illegality of acquiring music, but the cost of storing it digitally. The ownership issue might even be rendered moot by a new breed of consumer--one who is probably also intimately familiar with the streaming-download model--that doesn't need to own the music to enjoy it pretty much whenever and wherever.

While I couldn't reach Lars Ulrich of Metallica for comment, one has to wonder how this model can adequately support the payment of artist royalties. Moreover, one has to wonder what this portends for all manner of copyright-protected media. Are subscription services the future of other forms of media as well? With this media increasingly consumed via digital device and stored on hard-drive(s), "ownership" in the sense defined by the thousands of LPs I currently have in storage may be headed out the door. We'll just pay some set amount, borrow what we want, in whatever degree of permanence we desire, and then press delete when we're done.

It's hard to believe, but it has been scarcely more than 100 years since the mass marketing of gramophones began and with it the era of the consumption of recorded music. Before that time, the only way to consume music was to see in performed live by someone else, or to play it yourself. With not everyone being talented in this capacity, the world of live performance was where the music really lived. As the record industry matured and American consumerism grew up alongside it, the propensity to maintain large music collections flourished. Now, perhaps the pendulum is swinging back in the other direction. If you can listen to or own virtually any piece of recorded music anytime you want, maybe the thrill and value of ownership is diminished. And paradoxically, perhaps this will return the original form of consuming music to greater prominence. I'll have to ask my trombone-playing former Virgin employee friend in ten years or so.

Daniel Turman

06/ 5/2009

Does Data as Art Resonate More?

kangaroo.jpgData has long been pervasive. Humans seem endlessly intrigued with cataloging and collecting things. We are constantly looking back to look forward. Historical data has helped us prepare for re-occurrences and understand complicated spans of time that may be seemingly unrelated. Data is becoming increasingly easier and easier to collect and it's really starting to pile up.

Numbers by themselves can never tell a story and that's where the fun begins. Visualizing and finding/telling interesting stories with these mountains of data has become almost as important as the data itself.

I am so impressed by both ends of the data visualization spectrum. Taking huge data sets that appear insurmountable and creating visually stunning works of art that allow a viewer to dive into. These often create lasting impressions and let viewers experience the data as a piece of art containing layers and layers of information. Equally impressive, if not more important is the ability to tell concise stories by stripping the data down to its most crystallized form. Making complex data sets accessible and approachable is a task of flawless organization and design restraint.

Here are some recent data visualization pieces that I have found intriguing. Hope you enjoy.

Random Walk. What does randomness look like?

The World of 100. What would a world with a village of 100 people look like? Think beautiful posters with simple vector graphics that related to statistical slices of the world. Gender, Literacy, Education, Food and Computers are just a few.

Roambi: An iPhone app dedicated to the display of data.

Do these representations resonate with you more than straight up text would?

Dwayne Raupp

06/ 3/2009

Progressive Customer Service from a Progressive City

sanfran.jpgSan Francisco residents now have an easier way to complain. Mayor Gavin Newsom, a big Twitter user (he first announced his bid for governor of California via Twitter), is looking to kick the city's customer service up a notch. Residents (or really anybody that's on Twitter) can send Tweets to @SF311 reporting potholes, city de-beautification adbandoned vehicles and more.

Based on the Tweet signatures, it looks like the city has a couple people devoted to reading and responding to these Tweets. They say they want to reciprocate the follow, but they are currently only following about half of their followers. But I guess I should give them some slack. It's only their first day at this. (And they already have 28 Tweets!)

They also encourage you to direct message (DM) your complaints.

"Hi, we're processing your Tweet. For faster service, please us a DM as only DM's are monitored real time"

Initially it sounds like an efficient means for resolving problems. If this works, it'll be interesting to see if other cities follow. But I see a few things that may cause some hang-ups.

1. How do you detail your complaint in 140 characters or less? Some problems just require more explanation.
2. How do they keep it positive? Why would I want to follow them? Will they ever start the conversation instead of just responding to it?
3. Can't you only DM someone if they're following you? So how will that service request response work if there's no follow?

Would you like to see your city do this? And do you think it makes for faster resolution of city problems?

NOTE: Thanks to David Feldt for the news.
Sarah Jo Sautter



06/ 2/2009

YouTube is Ready to Change the Game. Again.

Exhibit A: BooneOakley's new website.



Did you click? Press play. But try clicking from the traditional URL too: booneoakley.com. See how you were seamlessly ported off to the YouTube video. It is the agency's site. One that has embedded links to the portfolio and all other points of relevant interest. And all presented in convenient YouTube format. Shareable, embeddable, and comment-able. And , as one commenter noted: "Boone Oakley - 1, The rest of you hacks - 0."

Exhibit B: Getyourbasketballon.com.



Blast Radius hires Charlie Murphy from The Chappelle Show to star in an elaborate and ingenious mythology around the man who beat out Michael Jordan for the last spot on his 10th grade basketball team: Leroy Smith. Deliberately lo-fi, the site's brilliant integration of YouTube and social media is matched by the talent on hand. Better still, it promotes Nike subsidiary, Brand Jordan, without a single Jumpman logo to be seen. And Charlie Murphy as a ludicrous basketball motivational specialist? It's like unaired Chappelle show sketches.

Now, for the rest of us? Time to get our YouTube on.

Daniel Turman

PS. Hat tip to Sacha Reeb for finding the BooneOakley site and providing the following commentary: "Smart site placement. Direct viral path. Endless seeding possibilities." Agreed. See Exhibit A.

PPS. Not all of the Leroy story is a myth. He really did beat out Jordan for the one spot for a sophomore on their team, largely because he was taller. And as an homage, Jordan used the name "Leroy Smith" as his alias when checking into hotels throughout his career.

Offices Need More Fur

tracidog.jpgFor some, it's coffee. For others, it's thinking about what awaits them at home. And for a select few, it's about what is at home. For those like Molly Layton, working from home has it pluses -- including being able to take a break from the digital world to enjoy time with her favorite co-worker: Riley.
 
It's hard to have a bad day when there is a dog curled up on your feet. While it can sometimes be difficult to conduct business as usual, it is not impossible.  I recall more than a few conference calls that were interrupted by some fierce barking on my end, usually at the postal delivery service. I'm blessed with great co-workers in both my home and business offices though, which means once everyone has shouted "Hi Riley," and laughed a bit, we've always been able to get back to the business at hand, with the mood of the participants noticeably lightened.

Pets are generally patient creatures - they also possess an uncanny ability to intuit or sense when owner stress levels are rising. Once they pick up on it, they seek to intervene. You may be able to put them off for a little while, like postponing an internal meeting, but the longer you make them wait, the more disruptive they tend to become. It is, I would say, generally perilous to ignore them.

The results of taking their urgent calls, and following their lead, so to speak, can be surprisingly productive. Sometimes Riley and I play, sometimes we go off leash and tear up the park, and sometimes we just wander and sniff every little corner of this fabulously smelly world. Often I find that complex problems (that no amount of time spent in front of my screen have solved)  miraculously resolve themselves in my head while my body is in motion.

Spending time like this, I've begun to see that the break from work is just as valuable as the time spent working. I'm grateful for my office manager, Riley, who helps me to get back on track, whenever I begin to stray.

But what about those of us who work in an office every day? There have been plenty of studies that show pets in the work place are beneficial. Many sources (including the American Humane Association) state they can:

1. Improve morale
2. Increase productivity
3. Inspire better performance
4. Reduce stress
5. Lower absenteeism
6. Increase willingness to work longer hours
7. Act as ice-breakers during client visits

 
And it looks like many companies have tried it out. If that's a requirement for you, use Simply Hired to find your next dog-friendly employer. When offices do allow you to bring in your pet, they usually have policies -- to keep it fun. Guidelines like only on certain days/times, sign up sheets, "three strikes you're out" in regards to accidents, no barking, must be clean and on a leash often apply. 

Organic, Inc. is the first company I've worked for that offers pet insurance -- in both our U.S. and our Canadian offices to help cover the costs of your pet's healthcare. At first, I thought it was silly. Since, I've come to believe it says a lot about the company.

A happy puppy is just as cheerful as the new mom bringing in her newborn and provides a pleasant lift in the atmosphere.
 
Are pets the break we need to pull us out of this interactive universe and clear our heads? Does your office allow pets?
 
Molly Layton
Sarah Jo Sautter

06/ 1/2009

Social Music Cacophony

Bird_Recordplayer.jpgPhoto Credit: Jeroen Diepenmaat

Social music discovery and recommendation services have exploded in recent years. It's nice to see DRM schemes crumble and looking around it seems that that the rapid fragmentation and proliferation of these services is likely to continue for some time. Changes to licensing and distribution models that spanned several generations have forced people to choose how they want to discover, consume, and share music.

In thinking about all the ways I discover, consume and share music it became apparent that the services one uses are a good predictor of all sorts of personal, geographic, and social tendencies (more on this in a later post). Here's a rundown of my habits.

For music discovery I've used Shazam to tag the occasional track here and there, but I use Hype Machine more than any other service. I have a few friends who work in the music industry and post tons of music videos on Facebook. I find their posts invaluable. There are a few blogs I check regularly too. And, lots of people on my IM network use various clients that allow them to display what they're listening to throughout the day.

MySpace music seems to have become the de facto homepage for many bands - probably because it's so easy to stream full tracks from their media player - so I poke around over there once in a while. It would be tough to go back to a world without the Pandora iPhone app and living in NYC, with so many bands passing through, Sonic Living has become an indispensable resource for keeping track of upcoming shows.

Of course, there are tons of music videos on YouTube, so I'm there now and then. Both Last.fm and Imeem are tried and true veterans that get some play when everyone else is failing to quench my thirst for something new. I also scrobble iTunes and Hype Machine with Last.fm so I have everything in one place.

As far as sharing goes, I post playlists to a great site called 8tracks so I can share them over Twitter and Facebook. We stream playlists and often entire libraries on our office iTunes network and I'm into that too. So much so, that I downloaded a little utility called iTunes Monitor that lets me see who's listening to my playlists.

I know there are some big names missing from this list, so it would be great to hear what the Threeminds readership thinks of my music ecosystem and how they meet their discovery, consumption, and sharing needs.

Dan Neumann



05/29/2009

Bridges to Babylon: Three Wolf Moon and the Cult of the Sarcastic Amazon.com Review

10378165.jpgThree. Wolf. Moon. If you recognize the three words, then you probably know at least part of the story. If you don't, it is the digital equivalent of a butterfly flapping its wings in the Amazon and six months later that action directly resulting in a category-five hurricane striking New York City. Well, in this case, tiny Marlborough, New Hampshire.

On November 10, 2008, Rutgers University law student Brian Govern posted a satirical review on Amazon.com. It was for a product that he hadn't been shopping for, but found its way to him by way of the site's proclivity to recommend somewhat random products. In this case the recommendation was for a t-shirt. A t-shirt emblazoned with an image that was destined for an irony-driven star turn in the national spotlight. One that appears torn from the side of a disco van from 1977. In Anchorage, Alaska. Three airbrushed wolves. Howling at an oversized moon.

Unable to resist, Brian wrote an impassioned endorsement that ended with the following words. About a product he had no intention of purchasing.

"Pros: Fits my girthy frame, has wolves on it, attracts women
Cons: Only 3 wolves (could probably use a few more on the 'guns'), cannot see wolves when sitting with arms crossed, wolves would have been better if they glowed in the dark."

Today, 859 other people have added reviews of their own. And a product which last year was trickling into the hands of consumers at a rate of one or two per day is now selling at a rate of more than 300 units per hour. Michael Krinsky and Jeff Grosner, owners of the company that produces the shirt, are now the unlikely manufacturers on the top-selling item of clothing on Amazon.com, a position that they secured on May 19th and have held since.

The story made it into the newspaper of record--the New York Times--last Sunday. It got to ABC News--and TV--on Wednesday. The Associated Press released their syndicated print version of the tale 23 hours ago. But what none have so far chosen to mention is the cult that spawned the phenomenon. Following the breadcrumbs to other "related" products for sale on Amazon.com quickly demonstrates the cult's power. As well as the talents that they wield.

I am speaking of the cult of the satirical reviewer.

They have written poetry about milk. Cracked wise about overpriced diamonds. Gotten snarky about exercise pants. And now they've got their first number-one hit. Three Wolf Moon. Remember the name. Because it may well symbolize a spiritual shift in the very fabric of hipster irony. Mock Three Wolf Moon if you must, but why? Instead, recognize the cultural moment that produced it. Celebrate the unlikely response by a student and the ensuing dogpile that now has 300 shirts an hour flying across the Internet. As an oft-sarcastic and sometimes public-facing consumer, personally, I'm finding the moment strangely empowering. A new twist on the American dream. With wolves. Which makes it inherently more awesome.

Daniel Turman

PS. Of course there's a YouTube parody that's racking up the views too.


06/ 1/2009

A Spork @ Spago: Aggregation Makes Media Outlets Bland

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Recently, an AdAge commentary piece suggested (in short) that news organizations must hurry up and adapt to aggregation as news consumers want more content and don't care where they get it.

News Outlets Must Accept That Consumers Want More Content Faster -- and Don't Care Who Creates It

I would beg to differ. Trying to be all things to all people is what got media companies into this mess. And for upstart companies - and digital marketing clients out there - it's important to understand that when it comes to content, it's trust that keeps readers coming back.

Right now, brands have the unique opportunity to grab this ring and win their consumer's trust via content in this market.

Continue reading "A Spork @ Spago: Aggregation Makes Media Outlets Bland" »