Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.
So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.
The Social Web: All About The Small Stuff by Joe Kraus, Director of Product Management
Most of what Joe Kraus ends up talking about seems likely. Social activity is already starting to be distributed around the web, although it's a very fractured experience. OpenID and similar efforts certainly will impact that - although like the cellphone world, the walls around those gardens won't fall easily. Mobility is already growing in the space, and while the experience isn't great now, I don't see why it wouldn't improve over time. And presence is showing up beyond IM and forums in places like video gaming. So at the end of the day, the things he thinks will happen I agree are likely to as well.
But, I didn't agree with everything?
"Fortunately, as the web becomes more social, I won't have to spend as much energy thinking about what's 'interesting enough' to share with a certain group. The people who care about me and that I allow will increasingly be able to tune in to the parts of my life that interest them."
He posited that it's "the small things" that keep people close. Now his definition of "small things" is probably different than mine - he mentioned the "small detail of me getting a new car" as an example. I'd say 'small things' is probably more the multiple times a day world of twitter, yammer and the like. Either way it brings up two thoughts for me. One is that I'd say the constant exchange or knowledge of the small things isn't what keeps folks close.
I'd say all the small stuff when simply broadcast creates a sense of connectedness, but it's not really closeness. I think closeness comes not just from knowledge of those things, but the personalization of them. It's when you talk someone regularly and keep them up to date that they feel close. And I'd say the big stuff along the way certainly helps. Without the personalization it's like that mass letter that starts "hey everybody - sorry for the spam, but I'm really busy..." instead of the quick note "hey joe - just was thinking about you last night when I went out to see the Beastie Boys..."
And one of the trends he didn't discuss was how the shortcomings (e.g. Tendency to broadcast a ton of small stuff leading to info-overwhelmed and somewhat de-personalized connections) may drive changes in how people connect and how the technology enables that. In the future, I see a large possibility of friends lists shrinking, re-emergence of small group dynamics and quick but personalized sharing.
What do you think?
David Lewis
Strategists & Planners