Three Minds On Digital Marketing @ Organic

image credit: johilton (Flickr)

We've seen it in the movies, future interfaces that leave us amused and yet enthralled. As science fiction as they seem, how would the people of the past feel if they had somehow stumbled upon an iPhone? It might have looked like an alien device, but the concepts of what it does might not have seemed so foreign. They had, after all, predicted online shopping and bill paying back in 1969. But, it's those interfaces that seem so... future-y.

In a three-part series, I will examine interface technology that is just poking through the surface of technology culture and separate science fact from science fiction.

The first trend I am going to be looking at is this notion that future interfaces will be more natural.

Ever since that monkey picked up that first bone and used it as a weapon (if we are going off of the documentary film, 2001: A Space Odyssey), we have been moving towards a culture of tools. We use hammers to build houses. We use pens to write. And we use a keyboard and mouse to enter the virtual world. But a strange and fascinating thing has been happening. For the first time, we're evolving beyond tools.

Am I now getting too sci-fi? Think about this. For the children of tomorrow there will be no more wires. There will be no more "input devices". It will be natural gestures in front of a virtual world. Will they understand how data gets from one place to the next? Will they even understand this as a "tool"? Or for them will it be simply another way to communicate, another language deeply connected and rooted in their physical world?

2001: A Space Odyssey introduced us to artificial intelligence gone wrong. Ever since then, self-aware technology has been part of mass culture, from science fiction to horror to even an episode of the X-files. It's become cliché. But, however much we try and shake it away as the 21st century boogeyman, each of us wonders deep down inside, could that really happen?

In part two of this three-part series, I am going to be looking at is this notion that future interfaces will be more intelligent.

Artificial intelligence isn't something we should be totally scared about. It is already part of our daily lives. Amazon guesses what products you'd like to buy and those are the first things you see when you visit the site. The primary way Netflix displays ratings is not by what everyone else things, but what they think you'd think based on what everyone else thinks.

Real artificial intelligence is based on watching user behavior over time, watching community behavior over time, and guessing the preferred result to an action. It's not that different than the way any living creature learns over time, only that we have the option to change that action into a non-preferred result. So until Google starts sending me bad results on purpose, because they are holding a grudge that I'm still using Hotmail, I don't think we have anything to worry about

The classic example of future interfaces that technology buffs like to bring up is Minority Report. While the touch-screen wall of glass seemed a bit extreme at the time, there is no denying that touch-screen going to be a big part of our future. Other famous moments of that movie included Tom Cruises run around the city with video ads playing on the city walls and sidewalk. There were videos ads on the back of cereal boxes, personalized video messages at department stores, and electronic newspapers.

In final part of this series, I am going to be looking at is this notion that future interfaces will be everywhere.

This has been one of the most fun areas for people to theorize. With the mainstream adoption of wifi services, the idea that anything, including an umbrella or a refrigerator, to become internet-enabled is a possibility. So what is the true way we sift the mainstream from the somewhat ridiculous? The big question is, does it fill a need that is wide enough for everyone to understand why they need it in their lives?

image credit: GraphJam

August has ended. Technically, fall is upon us. We won't have another holiday off until Thanksgiving. I figured for the first ThreeMinds post back from Labor Day weekend, we all could use a laugh. And one form of data visualization that has really came into its own in the past few years is graph humor.

The king of the graph humor is Demetri Martin. Demetri is famous for his contributions to the Daily Show and he has appeared on everything from Conan O'Brien to Flight of the Concords. But it was back in his 2004 Comedy Central special where his unique brand of graph humor really shined.

Of course, there are many other varieties of graph humor...

Since we're all already drawing or gesturing all day on our iPhones, Palms, WinMos, (and Newtons), perhaps this is a good time to introduce the gesture as a way of navigating the web. Sure its been attempted before, but Hello Monday (hellomonday.com), who developed the site, really makes it all very seamless and quite intuitive. Draw a right arrow to go right, a left arrow to go left, and 'M' for menu. It's fun. It's easy. Check it out. Draw it out.

Oh, and buy some nifty clothes while you're at it.

http://www.red-issue.com/

.lau ardelean

This year, with the release of Apple's Safari browser along with the latest releases of iTunes, the Windows-based browser eco-system got quite a shake up. Yesterday, along came Google Chrome. Based on the same rendering technology as Safari, Google Chrome will change many things in the land of web browsers and the way people access the Internet.

There are three significant experiential changes in Chrome: 1) a single "do everything" box that searches, browses, and navigates; 2) web page isolation in processes (so web page crashes don't take out your whole browser); and 3) a lightning fast JavaScript engine that actually complies code and manages memory efficiently (one of the major bugbears with the complex JavaScript that is possible today). Of those three things, the first is very much inline with the latest release of Internet Explorer 8 and Firefox 3. The second element is most intriguing. It focuses primarily on the poor memory management and bad behavior of browser components. This may just be the single biggest reason for PC users to switch or at least try Chrome. The third element will make a big difference for highly interactive sites and significantly improve performance of Javascript libraries.

One more point to note, setting up Flash, QuickTime, Windows media playing in browsers has always been complicated. The Google Chrome browser "just works". All of those types and pieces came integrated and working right out of the box, no complicated additional downloads, no extra setup steps. All in all, I think Google Chrome will be an interesting change for folks. It will complicate web application development, as we will now have another browser specification to build to, but ultimately it will streamline the web browsing experience for the Windows user. Will it surpass Firefox? Will it overtake IE? Will it be as revolutionary on the Mac? How will Android and mobile browsers use Chrome? These are questions only time can answer. I for one, welcome our new Google overlords to the browser party.

Dean McRobie

Sometimes--Freud noted--a cigar is just a cigar. And sometimes online marketing is just online marketing. To wit, I have noticed a drastic change in marketing articles lately, shifting from what and why, to how. This is exciting. The message is finally getting out. But I do not see so many clients acting accordingly yet. It is not the size of the campaign, but how carefully it is crafted.

Is the client side still missing the point? Some questions.

Do you really know why consumers come to your site?
Do you know what they want?
Do you know how they felt about your site?
Do you know what they left with?
Do you know what they told others, if anything?

Last Sunday, more than half a million people worldwide opted to heed Nike's call and run ten kilometers. Official race events were held in 26 cities worldwide, while others were encouraged to "run anywhere" using the Nike Plus/iPod pedometer system. With online tabulation of race results for official competitors and iPod users, the event literally allowed participants to race the world, at a universally accepted distance. The promotion also involved pretty sweet micro-site action and free t-shirts.

Liking the idea of going out for a run with the world, Dawn Farrell in the San Francisco office put out the call for runners. Holiday weekends being what they are--and 10K being what it is, at more than 6.2 miles--only three of us joined the worldwide effort on Sunday. Possessing neither Nike Plus systems, nor living in one of the official race cities, we decided to freestyle it. Draw up our own courses and get at it. Three people, three stories. And a nice shared moment of zen with the planet. Viva Endorphin release. First, the words of the organizer, Dawn Farrell.

"Pacific Heights was the backdrop for my first ever 10K. My goal was to finish and I did. My course was designed to be dog friendly as my 12 year old Labrador joined me (that's 84 to you and me). She finished too, a much bigger accomplishment than anything I did that day.

I found myself far more aware of others sharing the pavement than I usually am, my competitive nature kicked in as I observed how easy they made it look, and my Nike t-shirt mandated 'Just Do It' attitude changed quickly to more of one of, 'I can totally take you.' I did managed to get myself to a more zen place at about 4K thanks to the sounds of the Rolling Stones blasting from my nano."

Confession: I am addicted to so-called "fantasy" sports (true fantasy would be me actually playing at the pro level; crunching stats and trash talking with my fellow sports nerds is reality). As such, I find myself regularly disappointed by the mind-numbing spreadsheets that pass for fantasy sports coverage by a growing number of 'zines and sites.

Along comes the August 2008 issue of ESPN The Magazine's "A College Football Fan's Guide to the Galaxy" -- a smorgasbord of "data porn" the likes of which I haven't seen in sports journalism before (or since...the September issue reverts back to tables and tables of numbers).

Each of the 28 pieces of information design in the guide combines multiple data points to communicate a single idea in an elegant and supremely legible way. It's an art, which is why you see one researcher and three designers credited on the article.

Sam Cannon

Mike Brooks just e-mailed the office to share a fascinating site:

My buddy's wife is in labor right now and he's blogging about it. I don't know what else to say other than this is amazing and engaging content. Check it out, the baby hasn't come yet. He even just did a post about the site's statistics.

Anyone can check out the Dredge Family birth in real-time at http://www.dredgefamily.com/wp/.

But the Dredge Family isn't the only one doing this. It seems to be a growing meme this month, as live births have been broadcast via uStream.TV and Twitter.

Will the old-fashion cigar give way to the superpoke?

Marta Strickland

The New York Times recently wrote a piece on lifestreaming. A lifestream is the story of your life told through an ongoing time-ordered stream of digital snippets. The most famous site for this is Twitter. And in the article, Brave New World of Digital Intimacy, they create several new vocabulary words to attach to this interesting new concept, and the way people have been connecting with each other via sharing lifestreams.

Ambient Awareness: The effect of individual bits of socialized information, which seem insignificant on their own, forming into a highly sophisticated portrait of the information provider, and allowing followers to gain a sort of ESP on the followed.

Co-presence: The effect of tiny updates in real time giving a feeling of intimacy, as if the users participating in the messaging were sitting side-by-side and acknowledging each others activity.

The article struck a cord with some of the Organics who are on Twitter, but especially those who have yet to join.

"I have two small kids, and I barely have time to send an email note, and even those are getting shorter and shorter. It seems silly to send such short notes by email, so I wait until I have time to either call or write a longer note -- but then I end up not connecting at all. My best intent of connecting is backfiring.

For me, what stuck out about Twitter was the view on the connectedness with friends via little snippets over time that aggregate into an awareness and/or presence with people."
Ellen Nearman

The article turned Ellen from a Twitter-skeptic into a Twitter-hopeful. But she wasn't the only one affected. Many of us frequent Twitterers felt inspired to come up with a few of our own vocabulary words...

The Twitter Tabloid

"It's a little addictive. I mean, if I follow Britney Spears on twitter, I might feel closer to her, but I'm not. It's no different than reading about her in a magazine or in Perez Hilton's blog. But it feels personal because it's on my phone or my twitter page. I feel a bit like I'm in a virtual version of Rear Window. I know they left the curtains open and all but am I really supposed to be looking?"
Tracy Cote

Tweepsourcing

"Recently, I was at a Mashable party and everyone is Twitter about it. It was a great way to see how people felt about the party and whether or not you wanted to invest more time or not. At the same time, people were also Twittering (or Tweeting) about 2 other parties happening in SF that night. It was a great way to see if you were at the coolest party. It was such a great utility. Of course, maybe this just happens in SF."
Marita Scarfi

While I haven't experienced the draw of the Twitter Tabloid, I just recently Tweepsourced my vacation out to the Northwest with great results. It all comes back to the magic of "weak ties". I might only have a few close friends who have been to Portland and Vancouver, let alone know it well enough to make recommendations. But with the power of Twitter and social networks, my social circle is far larger and more diverse than it ever has been.

Marta Strickland

CNN is running a really great banner ad by Apple. Check it out, and make sure you have your sound turned on!

It might seem like a mistake to put "really great" and "banner ad" in the same sentence, but in truth there is a lot of work and thought that goes into them, at least the ones that are good. Many users on the CNN site might consider banner ad greatness on a measure of which ones annoy them the least, or in the case of Apple, which one might have made them laugh, distracted them for a moment, before they went back to their daily routine.

But for the people that work behind the scenes, the Apple banner registered as "great" on a whole different level.

"I'm not a Flash guy, but I can tell you that the pieces would have to come in under a certain file size (I think under 100K for most rich media like this - 30K or less in non-rich media situations). So, considering how impactful the ad is, that's pretty impressive on the part of whoever built this ad.

Looking at the code on the page really quickly, it's two separate embed commands, one for the top SWF, and the second for the side SWF - each of which I would assume has a piece of video embedded within it. How they are able to interact with each other by starting at the same time, however, I have no idea."
Daryl Brewer, Engineering

"Well, the idea of having two banners communicate is not particularly new. People have been doing it for years. But this apple concept is pretty cool. What's interesting is if you check the two ads out of context. The top ad has no sound whatsoever and the bottom ad does.

You can see a couple of browser pops, where the ads are speaking to each other, I assume with localConnect. The issue usually revolves around the communication aspect. Since all browsers behave differently, it used to be a crap shot on whether or not it would work. But they've gotten around it and it works pretty flawlessly."
Hugh Elliott, Integrated Media

Marta Strickland

The ideas are out there... waiting to be harnessed. We just have to make the time to brainstorm, to talk, to have dinner, and in the process, to capture all those ideas we generate but usually disregard for whatever reason.

This article made me think about how I always come up with various random ideas, and a year or so later, someone else comes up with the same idea and does something with it (think about it...how many people wished for seat warmers in their cars before someone just sat down and decided to make it happen?!). Some ideas are just sitting there waiting for someone to call them out and make them real... at least, that's what Malcolm Gladwell is implying in his latest article:

http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2008/05/12/080512fa_fact_gladwell

How many dinosaur bones are we all walking over without seeing them?

Tracy Cote

Be Warned: the site above is littered with foul language and disturbing images. Those that are easily offended stay away. With that said - the site is genius.

Surfing from home the other night I stumbled upon www.martin-h.com, a site that really got it's hooks into me. Rarely do I sit through an entire site's content - but I did for this one.

The storytelling was done in a fun & unusual way that I've not seen before. The non-traditional cellophane pill packet navigation takes the user through each phase of the main character's story in a compelling and personal way. We've seen the spiral effect countless times in page transitions but in this design it really works. Take the pill, got for a spin & load new content.

Also, the large amount of content that actually speaks to the user (ie. videos/avatars) is what kept me engaged throughout the site. One of the big themes of 2008 is using video more in interactive work. This site uses it extensively, but not in the traditional means you'd expect. It's not separate movies, it's integrated into the experience.

From the opening video where you see the guy playing with his dog I was hooked. I wanted to see more... and that is a rarity these days.

Patrick Dunphy

You remember that old saying "you get what you pay for". Well, it seems somewhat appropriate in this case.

Michael Moore decided to release his new movie "Slacker Uprising" online. The film documents Moore's "get out and vote" 62-city tour during the 2004 U.S. presidential election. And if you sign up now at slackeruprising.com, you'll be able to download the entire movie for FREE on September 23rd.

But, why free? According to Michael Moore:

"This is being done entirely as a gift to my fans. The only return any of us are hoping for is the largest turnout of young voters ever at the polls in November."

For those of us who have seen the movie, we have some other theories:

Review by Michael White
The best thing I can say about CAPTAIN MIKE is that it looked incredibly sharp on the digital projection system here at the Toronto International Film Festival. This film--also known by the better title SLACKER UPRISING--is something of a half-hearted sequel to Moore's FAHRENHEIT 9/11, documenting Moore's "Slacker Uprising" tour of 2004 in which the filmmaker attempted to lessen the number of "red states" on the political map of the U.S. by encouraging voter registration and turnout.

Unfortunately, seeing all of the folks in CAPTAIN MIKE serves as a reminder to just how close we came to dethroning our unelected president and how much this failure has hurt us in the years hence. It's a bit like seeing interviews with the geeks in line for STAR WARS: THE PHANTOM MENACE who have no idea about the world of hurt they're about to enter.

The myriad shots of Moore shambling onto various stages across the country keeps begging the question, "Just how many baseball caps does this guy have, anyway?" After a while, the film feels too sad to stand. There are times when the "Slacker Uprising" tour seems as though it should be called "Michael Moore's Ego Trip Across America." It seems that the less of Moore on screen the better. With that equation in mind, CAPTAIN MIKE has Moore on screen one way or another through approximately 95% of the film. You do the math.

With a review like that many could say that Slacker Uprising would have never made any return on a theater release. With a price tag of free, there is a lowered expectation on the quality of the content. Releasing it on the internet became a wise move on Moore's part to save face and actually get his message across to a wide audience.

Alex Churchill

I'm back from vacation, and ready to report on this week's social media news. Why so much focus on social media, you might ask? We'll, I'm obsessed for one, but for two, I really think that social media is changing the world we live in today. Did you know...

"Six degrees of separation has fallen to three due to the impact of social networking and developments in technology," according to a study carried out by O2.

We are closer together than ever!! And even though 58% of people don't know what "social networking" means, that doesn't get me down. It's just a matter of time before those people's lives become affected by social media, too. In fact, what they don't even know is that they probably already are.

What's Been Happening This Week...

Big Network Power, Small Network Growth
Proving the power of the masses this week, Facebook activism continues to rise and the US Department of Homeland Security used MySpace to link people to up-to-date hurricane alerts.

As for small networks, Ning has been quite successful, enabling the launch of over 400,000 niche communities. Developers have taken notice and two Ning-competitors launched over the last week. Webjam, a UK based company, launches as a direct competitor to Ning, hoping to win over users with DIY web services and widgets. Groupsites hopes to be to productivity and collaboration as Ning has been to a more casual and leisurely networking experience.

Microblogging Advances Further Mainstream
Speaking of productivity, it might not be a word you'd commonly associate with a microblogging platform such as Twitter, but to much surprise to many, the winner of this year's TechCrunch50 was Twitter-for-business start-up Yammer.

It's not just the early adopter blogs buzzing about tweeting. There were inspiring articles on both NYTimes and BusinessWeek recently about the power of Twitter.

And despite the recent drama with AMC and Twitter, old media channels are starting to embrace the channel. Even CNN has been heavily promoting their use on the air, calling from replies from their audience.

Old Media Playing Nice With New Media
CNN isn't the only old media + new media love fest that has been happening lately. Google has decided to archive and index one of the oldest forms of media, newspapers. And while digital is going after old, old is also becoming more digital. You might have seen the earlier piece this week about Esquire's new issue complete with a blinky e-ink cover.

But it isn't just about playing nice. As Mashable points out, new media might actually save old media and it's advertising-based revenue stream. The argument goes something like this. As TV shows become more and more interactive, allowing you to Twitter to your news anchor in real time or vote on what happens next, there will be a bigger draw to actually watch IN REAL TIME. Real time means, for those of us who have long succumbed to the magic of DVR, no fast-forwarding through commercials.

Some of you might have just shuddered at the thought of returning to a life of TV commercials. If only the traditional broadcast advertising industry can also embrace the power of interactivity, then maybe we wouldn't mind watching them so much.

Marta Strickland

Sekai Camera, which has been written up quite a bit since launching at TechCrunch50 on Tuesday, is basically a realtime data overlay onto video from the iPhone's camera. While I'm not sure walking around looking "through" an iPhone is an optimal execution, the idea of a localized data / social communication heads-up display is pretty fascinating.

It was unclear from the unique presentation and Q & A how "real" the system is. The language barrier and clear enthusiasm of the company's executives has reduced my confidence in my own comprehension to approximately 50%, but it seems the current version is based exclusively on GPS location data. The demo video implies an object recognition component, which seems potentially feasible (if exceptionally difficult) in the very near future. The iPhone does have the ability to stream live video, and recent demonstrations have shown the feasibility of realtime remote rendering and other huge computational tasks.

The panel at TC50 raised other important questions, like "how is data kept current"? Seeing firsthand the wonder that was TonchiDot's presentation, my personal guess is that it may be a while before we get some answers.

Christian Dodd

What do all of the companies above have in common? They are part of the Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem or DECE, which hopes to kill DRM and locked-up media content forever.

Or at least I think that is what they are trying to do. A recent article on Reuters made me a little confused about what this group is all about:

"A group of media industry companies said it is planning to build a digital world where video devices and content websites play together in perfect harmony, and consumers can safely store their digital content and access it anywhere in the world."

Are we talking cloud computing or Second Life now? They are planning to build a digital world?

Maybe the language of the article isn't the best, but for what it's worth, the idea is appreciated. I'm glad someone is making it their mission to return the act of buying digital media, whether movie or ebook or music, to the simplicity of buying physical media. Why shouldn't it be that simple... to know that one purchase grants you ability to play and access that media from anywhere you choose? No more limited plays, no more authorized computers!!

But, when I look at this list of players, there are some that have me a little skeptical, namely the traditional movie studios. Aren't these the ones who have been fighting so hard against YouTube and social media all along? Are these really the names that are going to bring us a digital revolution in "openness"? Are these the ones you trust to write the usage rulebook and make standards for devices?

Because, when I think of openness and when I think of the future of digital culture, these are the brands that pop into my head:

DataPortability - Join The Conversation from Smashcut on Vimeo.

Maybe I'm not giving the traditional media giants the benefit of the doubt. They are in good company at DECE with solid technology providers, such as Sony, Intel, and Microsoft. My mind starts to put together a picture of music I buy online being easily beamed to my phone and my PS3. And, there have been innovations from the giants lately in the way of Hulu and... well I'm stuck for another example.

But I guess there has just been a long enough history of big media fighting openness. So, for me to accept they have switched sides, well, I'll believe it when I see it.

Marta Strickland

I wasn't seeking it out the new Microsoft-Seinfeld ads, but it seems I can't avoid them. Everyone is talking about them. People were pretty confused when Microsoft announced their $10 Million deal with Jerry Seinfeld. But they only got more confused when the ads finally aired.

First, we got one with Jerry and Bill Gates in a shoe store. Next came one with Jerry and Bill studying the lives of the everyday family. And it seemed a consensus was building in the blogsphere:

"I just didn't connect with the first ad, which barely mentioned Microsoft and didn't do much to tell me why I should like their products in a competitive market. The second ad, which aired tonight, was more of the same."
Michael Arrington, TechCrunch

But for me... I guess I just kinda thought they were funny, or perhaps "quirky" is a better word. I decided to ask one of my colleagues what he thought about the ads:

"I think they are getting people talking an talking about Microsoft like we haven't I'm a while, with interest, intrigue, and yes even fun. I think they are the response to the Apple ads and so far they have done a good job teeing it up. Now it depends on whether the overall message follows through is where the real evaluation comes in."
St.John Oneil-Dunne

So I ask you, what do you think about these new Microsoft ads? Funny or off the mark?

Update 9/19/08: Microsoft released a new series of advertisements, and ended the Jerry Seinfeld campaign.

"As someone who likes macs, and tolerates using windows, I like these ads. Mainly because they don't say anything about Windows itself. Just a world of shiny happy people bravely declaring their PC-ness. It allows Microsoft to sidestep the fact that Apple's campaign focuses on comparing product features. They take Apple's characterization literally and deflect it onto the users, ignoring what the product can or cannot do. But they do take the time to show umbrage that perfectly decent people the world over do, in fact, wear glasses. And somewhere the cool kids are making fun of your glasses. Ooooh those unproductive jerks!
John Schuchard

Thanks for the update, John!

Marta Strickland

I minored in History, so I guess you could say that I'm a bit of a history buff. Although, I haven't been actively pursuing anything other than watching the History channel now and then, or perhaps coming across an interesting article, like this one...

"The Smithsonian Institution will work to digitize its collections to make science, history and cultural artifacts accessible online and dramatically expand its outreach to schools, the museum complex's new chief said Monday... working to bring in video gaming experts and Web gurus to collaborate with curators on creative ways to present artifacts online and make them appealing to kids."
Brett Zongker, Associated Press Writer

An initiative like this one could most definitely change how the next generation "goes to the museum," especially if the integration is as intuitive and far-reaching as they say it will be. However, there really isn't anything QUITE like actually being there. The peace, the quiet contemplation, the smooth and sturdy marble surfaces, the aura of those who have passed there before. Or on the other hand, the people watching on a busy Saturday afternoon.

I'm definitely a fan of art/art history. Every time I stand in front of a painting, I'm amazed to think that the actual artist was once in my shoes, standing in front of the canvas, considering his/her vision. I try to imagine what the artist was thinking or feeling, especially relative to that particular time in history. I'm also into artifacts that give us a glimpse at earlier civilizations and how people lived. Tools they used, keepsakes, jewelry, even knick-knackery.

Ultimately I would hope that this new experience will be an enriching catalyst to get more people (kids and adults) interested and involved... and then inspire them to get there in person. It could even be used as a supplement or follow-up to an actual visit. But, let's face it - not all schools or all people have the resources to travel for the real thing, so this could be a great tool for schools to use in the meantime.

All in all, History is just fascinating; it gives you perspective. We weren't the first here and I doubt we'll be the last...

Tara Williams

Editor's Note: What do you think? Will this effort bring history to a wider group? Or do you think its going to make this next generation forget that awesome feeling of standing in front of something that was created decades or centuries ago?

I've been watching my 401k lose a lot of value over the past year, and it's been even more grim the past few weeks. So when I received this email from Fidelity, I thought I blow a gasket.

It made me think how the emotional response I have to advertising can impact what I think of the company's brand. Media placements and creative messaging go hand in hand. The example above seems just completely irrelevant to me at a time where pretty much all Fidelity Funds are tanking. Is the agency that's managing their advertising even paying attention to what they are messaging?

Meanwhile, one of my colleagues received an email yesterday morning from American Century's Chief Investment Officer entitled "Perspective on the Financial Crisis". His experience left him feeling more comfortable leaving his money where it is today. The e-mail read:

"As we look ahead, we expect choppy market conditions to continue. There has been one major bankruptcy - I suspect there will be more. In these difficult times, we will continue doing what we do best: following our disciplined, repeatable investment processes to produce the best possible long-term results for clients and investors."

I guess it's good to know that some financial institutions are not trying to cover up the current economic crisis. Instead, American Century is doing exactly what they are supposed to do... having an honest and authentic conversation with their customers to try and restore some level of confidence in their brand. The smart ones realize that is vital in a time where financial brands have the odds stacked against them.

Sonja Scharrer

Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.

So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.

The Social Web: All About The Small Stuff by Joe Kraus, Director of Product Management

Most of what Joe Kraus ends up talking about seems likely. Social activity is already starting to be distributed around the web, although it's a very fractured experience. OpenID and similar efforts certainly will impact that - although like the cellphone world, the walls around those gardens won't fall easily. Mobility is already growing in the space, and while the experience isn't great now, I don't see why it wouldn't improve over time. And presence is showing up beyond IM and forums in places like video gaming. So at the end of the day, the things he thinks will happen I agree are likely to as well.

But, I didn't agree with everything?

"Fortunately, as the web becomes more social, I won't have to spend as much energy thinking about what's 'interesting enough' to share with a certain group. The people who care about me and that I allow will increasingly be able to tune in to the parts of my life that interest them."

He posited that it's "the small things" that keep people close. Now his definition of "small things" is probably different than mine - he mentioned the "small detail of me getting a new car" as an example. I'd say 'small things' is probably more the multiple times a day world of twitter, yammer and the like. Either way it brings up two thoughts for me. One is that I'd say the constant exchange or knowledge of the small things isn't what keeps folks close.

I'd say all the small stuff when simply broadcast creates a sense of connectedness, but it's not really closeness. I think closeness comes not just from knowledge of those things, but the personalization of them. It's when you talk someone regularly and keep them up to date that they feel close. And I'd say the big stuff along the way certainly helps. Without the personalization it's like that mass letter that starts "hey everybody - sorry for the spam, but I'm really busy..." instead of the quick note "hey joe - just was thinking about you last night when I went out to see the Beastie Boys..."

And one of the trends he didn't discuss was how the shortcomings (e.g. Tendency to broadcast a ton of small stuff leading to info-overwhelmed and somewhat de-personalized connections) may drive changes in how people connect and how the technology enables that. In the future, I see a large possibility of friends lists shrinking, re-emergence of small group dynamics and quick but personalized sharing.

What do you think?

David Lewis

image credit: Patrick Hoff [Flickr]

Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.

So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.

The Future Of Online Video by Chad Hurley, CEO and Co-Founder, YouTube

When I threw this first article against the Organic crowd there wasn't much to disagree with:

"I think its one hundred percent accurate and I can see a future of microvlogging. Instead of talking about a great site you are seeing you take a picture, or waiting for your wife to get off the train you take a picture. Video makes new experiences more real and I can see it being imbedded in everything that we do. TV made the world smaller, well when I can connect with my friend around the world on my cell phone walking on 5th ave, well it will be even smaller then that."
St. John Oneil-Dunne

But there was something in this article that struck me more than the predictions and the theories, and it was this simple fact: "Today, 13 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute, and we believe the volume will continue to grow exponentially."

Just let those numbers soak in. 13 hours. Every minute. That's almost 20,000 hours every day. That's almost 300,000 days worth of footage every year.

WE ARE SLOWING DOWN TIME.

In a second, in just a blink on this planet there are video cameras, microblogs, blogs, e-mails, facebook updates going out a speed greater than time itself. If you keep adding up year after year, your brain almost wants to explode thinking of the petabytes of data. Where are we going to store it? And how are we going to consume it?

What will the history books be like in 10 years, when there is more data and coverage than the time it actually took for history to happen?

Marta Strickland

Well, it's that time of year again, International Talk Like A Pirate Day. So don't be surprised if your tweets are filled with overuse of the letter "r", if you get poked with a hook hand on Facebook, or if Google looks just a little bit different.

What's Been Happening This Week...

International Launch A New Design Week
Apparently there was some aligning of planets in the social world that caused a gravitational pull to the "republish" button. Twitter and Friendfeed released subtle redesigns this week, sure to piss off some followers. Meanwhile, Zuckerberg has been hard at work defending the "controversial" new Facebook redesign. Yawn...

More interesting this week were the redesigns that will feature added functionality. MySpace is launching a bigger, better music service that turns everyone's profile into their own Muxtape. IMDB is adding video clips and even full length movies and TV shows. And Joost has finally released a web browser version. Each release came with mild applause but mostly just a lot of cynical bloggers scratching their heads.

Odd Pairings, Sometimes 1 + 1 Equals Confused
Speaking of cynical bloggers... there was A LOT of strange partnerships announced and discussed this week that just fed a frenzy of posts. There was, of course, the on again off again Microsoft-Seinfeld rumor mill. First everyone hated the commercials, then they were warming up to them. Then, there were rumors they were dumped, when new ads were released. And just today I read that there are still plans for new commercials featuring Gates and Seinfeld. Confused, yet?

Other confusing partnerships included Best Buy's purchase of Napster and of course the whole cluster of brands who have joined the grandiosely named Digital Entertainment Content Ecosystem (DECE).

The Double Standards Of Digital Intimacy
But that's all industry garbledy-gook. The REALLY interesting stuff that happened this week was along this continuing meme of "digital intimacy". When does society demand coverage and when is it deemed a threat to privacy and personal barriers.

Digital Intimacy good? CurrentTV partnered up with Twitter to get tagged (and I'm assuming selected) tweets on television screens around the nation during the presidential debates.

Digital Intimacy evil? It's up for debate whether this is evil, but the popular consensus is that Berny Morson, a Rocky Mountain news reporter, took things too far when he twittered the funeral of a 3-year-old boy. Many in the press took objection to Berny's ethics after the fact, while the rabbi who officiated the funeral saw it as "somebody sharing to a wider community [that was] interested and felt connected to this sad event."

What do you think? Where do we draw the hard lines of privacy?

Until next week...
Marta Strickland

Scott E. Fahlman, a notable computer scientist at Carnegie Mellon University, is credited with creating the first emoticons 26 years ago today: the :-) and the :-( symbols.

Frustrated with the misinterpretation of tone and intention on online bulletin boards (sound familiar? It's still a headache today), he attempted to combat that by getting people to put the smiley emoticon after a post intended to be lighthearted, and the frownie emoticon after content intended to be serious (although today we view it as a mark of displeasure, frustration, or anger.)

That was September 19, 1982. Fahlman's original post was lost for a couple of decades and believed gone for good. In 2001-2002 Mike Jones of Microsoft sponsored a more serious "archeological dig" through the backup tapes soliciting the help of Jeff Baird and the CMU CS facilities staff to find the http://www-2.cs.cmu.edu/~sef/Orig-Smiley.htm">original thread.

Disputes still arise as to whether or not he is the true inventor. However, I think that in 1982 the whole yellow smiley face phenomenon was in full swing and is likely an obvious influence.

Emoticons Today...

We still use these emoticons--and infinite variations--today whether you like them or not. In his account, Fahlman introduces thought-provokers such as have Microsoft and AOL ruined their whimsy by intercepting the ASCII and turning them into pictures? Does using them spoil the joke? Do they degrade our written word by allowing us to rely on them to convey our messages rather than using prose? It's up to you to decide, but I'm a writer and I use them--in moderation. ;-)

Heather Murray

Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.

So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.

Ad Perfect by Susan Wojcicki, VP, Product Management

I feel search will continue to improve its effectiveness, but that at this stage of the game, it will be perfecting what is an already efficient system.

I believe the real area of opportunity is in display advertising. While the technology has unquestionably made great strides - rich media, streaming video...even shopping experiences within banners - I question its ability to truly engage - to inspire and motivate - consumers.

When I read any type of magazine or newspaper - whether GQ, Fortune, Giant Robot, Spin, WSJ or the New York Times - I look forward to seeing the ads. It's part of the joy of reading them. I know that Tiffany's most typically occupies the top right of page 3 of the New York Times, always with some beautiful product. I also know that in fashion magazine, such as W or Men's Vogue, the size and quality of the advertisements are going to be dramatic and cool.

Banners, by and large, have become "Flash-ier", but they have not necessarily become memorable. In fact, I avert my glance, even on high interest websites (for me, JoshSpear.com, NYT.com, TheSartorialist.com). They are not part of my personal site experience, as loud and glaring as they might try to be. They are miniature Times Square billboards with no impact. How do we become memorable?

Part of the answer is better targeting:

"I think a big part of the future is targeting and the ever-expanding options that we know have at our fingertips to address consumers based on where they are, what they are doing, and what they are interested in...and after all that tell our clients what they did. This can include Google but most likely will require broader reach Ad Networks and dynamic ads so that, as Advertisers, we are not stuck on just a few sites, with the same ad hoping a consumer will come our way."
Guy Schueller

But as marketers, I also feel we need to push for a large canvas. Interstitial banners are a start, but I would argue that even within web pages, banners should be far more prominent. If engaging and relevant, I believe consumers will ultimately have the patience and interest to navigate through such experiences. But, there will continue to be a push back, because ultimately we haven't given them the online equivalent of a truly great print ad...yet!

Jonathan Cohen

image credit: akakumo [Flickr]

Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.

So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.

The Intelligent Cloud by Alfred Spector, VP Engineering, and Franz Och, Research Scientist

When people talk about Cloud Computing, they tend to lose their grounding in reality. Here are some important things to consider:

1. It's going to take a while for people (and businesses) to come around to trusting the cloud:

"It's not an OS (contrary to anything Mike Arrington says), and it will not be the answer to everyone's problems. People have an attachment to ownership - something that won't go away as easily as we think. Mainframe computing would have never worked as the sole option for the layperson computer user, and it won't work for the mainstream internet consumer/user/contributor."
Alex Bisceglie

But this isn't markedly different from the transition that we are undergoing with adoption of RIAs today. As people begin to view remote data as just as stable and secure as local data (Google Docs v Word), I think the likelihood of adoption goes up.

2. The cloud 'owners' need to work very closely with developers and users of their system to ensure that many of the base assumptions that we currently hold about applications stand true in the new world. eg: currently, there is no good way to do data backups inside of Google's App Engine (their cloud computing product). In reality, I should probably trust Google to have better data redundancy and failover backup capability than I would cook up, but at a very base level its very different from how developers work today.

But... it's going to happen, its going to be incredible and it looks (for now at least) that Google is going to lead the charge. Already they are using user activity to train their systems to very good effect. For example, they've been running Google411 as a free information service for quite some time, with the stated goal of teaching machines how to best recognize and parse human speech. The output? http://labs.google.com/gaudi full text indexing of video and audio content.

In a nutshell: its happening now and overall I think its a very good thing. But it needs to be closely monitored to ensure it doesn't become a very bad thing quickly.

James Vreeland

image credit: maureenld [Flickr]

The exceptional for others has to start with the exceptional for ourselves. We have to feel exceptional and be exceptional in order to provide the same. But how do we find the exceptional in ourselves, when mostly we are just trying to survive - the next deadline, the next meeting, the next commute to work... and the next and the next.

In his book, Stumbling on Happiness, Daniel Gilbert tells us that we are the only species that plans, and that planning takes place all up in our heads. In the meantime, what our bodies are up to is no different than what the rest of the mammals on this planet are up to, and that is "nexting", which means just what it says. We think we plan, we think we anticipate, we even think we create, but mostly what we really do is deal with the next thing coming at us, full speed, to infinity.

It's not specific to work or personal life, it's just life, happening, and we do whatever is the next most important thing, and then we do the next thing after that.

So, where can the exceptional be found, mired in the sea of next?

image credit: wired

Editor's Note: For the entire month of September, the year of Google's 10 year anniversary, they will be marking the occasion by asking their experts, "What's going to happen in the next ten years?" Since their philosophy is that the best way to predict the future is to invent it, their vision of the future of the web comes very much from the flavor of the Google Kool-Aid.

So Organic felt that this would be a good opportunity for us to respond to Google's vision of the future as they tell it, with our vision of the future.

The Future of Mobile by Andy Rubin, Engineering Director

Reading through Google's views on the future of mobile, there are major elements of the emergent mobile world they have completely missed due to their focus on practical function and utility. Where are the opportunities for entertainment? And what about furthering our personal growth?

It's like they are stuck in the same mentality people had about "personal computers" when they became mainstream. Many looked at the practicality and the functionality, but had not focused enough energy on how this device would become part of our homes and part of our lives.

There are two huge points that Google missed:
1. How does the technology engage us?
2. How does the technology transform us?

The knee-jerk way to look at the mobile web and the growth of the smart phone is to think of it as a personal computer in your pocket. But I prefer to think of this intelligent device as always on, always there, and always running in the background. In the future, you won't have to choose to engage it, it will engage you based on the stuff you need to know.

Another big mistake that people make with the way they look at mobile objects and applications is that they tend to think of them as an extension of personal character. They think of blogging and other public reporting mechanisms, and they miss the possibilities of this more private device that is always with you, giving you feedback in real time.

If you look at what is happening in the automotive industry right now, they are building in technology that communicates consumer diagnostic data in real time. The data is analyzed and available so that the consumer will know when their vehicle is in need of repair or whether they could be getting better MPG. It's not unreasonable to think that someday our mobile devices would digitize our life diagnostics, our health, our brainwaves, and let us know when we might be in need of repair.

In the future, the mobile web won't just be an extension of character, it will transform your character.

Tomas Roldan

I found this post really hard to write. My delicious steam has run pretty dry. My Twine updates have been noticeably slim. The world is understandably focused on other things. The economy, the bailout, the debates, people finding new ways to poke fun at Sarah Palin.

So I've had to breathe deep, clear my mind, and then give some serious thought to...

What ELSE Has Been Happening This Week...

Remember That Thing Called Google Android?
Oh yeah, didn't that phone that has been shrouded in rumors for the past year finally release actual details and a video demo? Yeah, THAT happened this week. And while Apple fanyboys are already listing the reasons why it's no iPhone killer, app developers are lining up for a platform that is going to offer way less restrictions.

The New PC Campaign, Ask And You Shall Receive
After people spent all of last week complaining about the irrelevance of the Seinfeld-Gates commercials, Microsoft turns around with an inarguably better series where people proclaim "I'm A PC". As soon as the commercials debuted, the blogosphere called for a user-generated portal where users could claim their PC-ness. Well, they must have been psychic, because Microsoft launched the very site they described the next day.

The State Of Social Media
All of us are hoping that the new president's first "State Of The Nation" address in January will come bearing better news than the past 48 hours. But in the meantime, this week we got two reports on the state of Social Media. Technorati launched their series, The State of the Blogosphere. And Opera updated their series, The State of the Mobile Web. Each worth a read.

The Twitterverse Is A Reflection Of Us
Alright, I made it a couple of paragraphs without thinking back to our current political situation. But luckily I'm not the only one sucked in by it. You only have to look at the newly launched Twitter Election page to see how fiercely the discussion is raging on. The tweets are flying faster than a news ticker now and are only going to speed up. Many are wondering if the platform will be able to hold up to it's primetime debut in tonight's first Presidential Debate.

Just don't watch the Twitter stream too long, or you might find yourself hypnotized, instead of outside enjoying the last days of warm weather...

Marta Strickland

Yesterday, I stumbled upon a fantastic advertisement for the new Wii game "Wario Land: Shake it!":
http://www.youtube.com/experiencewii

My first thoughts were probably the same as most other people's: "What the hell is happening?" What really makes it exceptional in my mind is how it takes something that we're all very used to, and (quite literally) shakes it up. After my initial shock of seeing pieces starting to fall off, I just did a very quick bit of investigation...

So, except for the header, the whole piece is one big Flash movie made into one fantastic optical illusion. They just worked the movie up to look exactly like YouTube, then as the game footage (which is part of the same movie) plays, they use Flash effects to make it look like the page is coming to pieces - a very simple and very smart idea .

I didn't know YouTube would allow somebody to take over an entire page like that. I can only imagine what it cost them! This could give us all kinds of opportunities - I want to see a Jeep Wrangler drive its way up the side and to the top of the video player now, as if it were climbing a mountain. My mind is buzzing with ideas.

Daryl Brewer

When I was having lunch with a colleague last week, she told me about an e-mail she had just received from her 9 year old niece. Rather than it being your normal friendly "hello", her niece was announcing the start of her first business, a "family advice" service. But the real hook was the "customer loyalty" program... for every 5 questions you asked, you'd get 1 question for free.

Her niece hadn't really thought through a pricing structure or solid growth plan, but in that moment she had her first idea for a start-up. The viral video, the web 2.0 start-up, the blog... these are the lemonade stands and the "playing house" of the next generation.

I was delighted and intrigued by the story. On a personal note, my husband and I are going to start a family in the next year, and so my ears have been perking up to the kid conversations around the office. How will the lives of my children be different than my childhood? Will it be more difficult to raise a child in today's culture? Is it really as scary as the news media makes it out to be?

And for the past week I have been a vessel, colleting every "child meets technology" story I could grab my hands onto from around the Organic offices. I picked through, analyzed, and arranged. And, I would now like to spend the next week sharing with you, the readers, what does it take to raise a digital native?

Please join me and comment with your experiences as we explore:
1. The Definition, what makes a "digital native" different
2. Play Time, how technology is changing relationships
3. Work Time, how technology is changing learning
4. The Trade-Off, how technology is changing human beings

Marta Strickland

Is your son or daughter showing signs of digital addiction?

The digital natives of today have been born into an always-on culture. For many children that are growing up with early adopters for parents, they have never known a time without cell phones, they have never known a time without wireless internet buzzing through the walls of their home. Connectivity flows in the air.

Aaron Yacks's son asked without hesitation if he could use his father's laptop to go online on a recent road trip. When denied, his son became confused and Aaron was struck to find words that would explain why his Blackberry could go online in a moving vehicle, but not the laptop. But in a few years, when we are connected everywhere all the time, will questions like this even exist?

We are reaching a new baseline for culture. It's a baseline where "online" is no longer a technical state. "Online" just is.

And this new baseline has some interesting implications on the way we record our children's lives, they way they interact with us, and they way they interact with each other...

Over the past several weeks Organic's Emerging Platforms Group has been working with our friends at Drop.io on a location-aware extension of their already awesome file sharing service. Drop.io understands that there are some unmet or poorly met needs that are inadequately addressed by the services and applications most people use to transfer, share, and store large files. Please don't ever email me a 50mb file. I will not be pleased. Anyone who isn't familiar with Drop.io's drop-based approach to sharing - go check it out - then come back and finish reading this.

Here's how it works: The application provides Drop.io users the ability to assign a physical location to any drop. Drops can then be found from a desktop/laptop PC, blackberry, and of course, an iPhone. The cool part - the mobile app - scans your location within a 1 mile radius of your position and returns any drops affixed to a location within that radius. We see this extension as a hybrid location-specific digital content publishing and distribution utility that has the potential to power a variety of interesting use cases.

One real-world example of how this might be used is at a concert. Say a band wants to give out copies of its latest song and other exclusive content to people who attend their concert, they can use Drop.io Location to publish that content to the concert venue, and make it available only to people at that location. We see people using this in a whole host of novel ways and we're looking forward to seeing some inventive applications that we haven't thought of [yet].

If you would like to join the private beta for the iPhone portion of this service you can request entry at: contact@dropio.com

Dan Neumann

Editor's Note: A few weeks back I spoke with Chad Stoller of Drop.io, a friend of Organic and the former Executive Director of our Emerging Platforms group. So make sure to check out that interview to get more of an idea of what Drop.io is all about.